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{
  "away": "Kruger United",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0045,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 36% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals Chippa United 1.25 – 0.95 Kruger United.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±11.2%), so it carries 13% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nKruger United's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nChippa United's attack (0.85× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nKruger United's attack (0.82× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1600354,
  "home": "Chippa United",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier Soccer League",
  "league_api_id": 288,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3616,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-288-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.52",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3661,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}