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{
  "away": "FSV Mainz 05",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0178,
  "explanation": "Away win: 40% against a market price of 42% (-1.8%).\nExpected goals FC Schalke 04 1.27 – 1.15 FSV Mainz 05.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nFC Schalke 04's attack (0.86× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).",
  "fixture": 1575192,
  "home": "FC Schalke 04",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 78,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4188,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-78-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.29",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4009,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}