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{
  "away": "SC Paderborn 07",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0252,
  "explanation": "Home win: 51% against a market price of 54% (-2.5%).\nExpected goals Werder Bremen 1.28 – 1.01 SC Paderborn 07.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nSC Paderborn 07's attack (0.79× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nWerder Bremen's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.5%).",
  "fixture": 1575191,
  "home": "Werder Bremen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 78,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.539,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-78-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.79",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5137,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}