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{
  "away": "FC Augsburg",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0148,
  "explanation": "Home win: 40% against a market price of 39% (+1.5%).\nExpected goals SV Elversberg 1.53 – 1.09 FC Augsburg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±9.2%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nFC Augsburg's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nSV Elversberg's attack (1.02× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.5%).",
  "fixture": 1575193,
  "home": "SV Elversberg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 78,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3898,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-78-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4045,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}