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{
  "away": "Ružomberok",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0081,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 46% (-0.8%).\nExpected goals Komárno 1.29 – 1.07 Ružomberok.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nKomárno's attack (0.78× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nRužomberok's attack (0.80× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+13% goals at home) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nRužomberok's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.8%).",
  "fixture": 1551576,
  "home": "Komárno",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 332,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4608,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-332-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.04",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4528,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}