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{
  "away": "Leningradets",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0372,
  "explanation": "Home win: 63% against a market price of 66% (-3.7%).\nExpected goals Spartak Kostroma 1.17 – 0.68 Leningradets.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 47% (uncertainty ±8.3%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nLeningradets's defence (1.13× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nSpartak Kostroma's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nLeningradets's attack (0.87× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.7%).",
  "fixture": 1577552,
  "home": "Spartak Kostroma",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "First League",
  "league_api_id": 236,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.664,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-236-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.45",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6268,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}