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Entry #329: pick published

Hash verified

Al Nasr v Hatta SC: Home win 66% @ 1.38 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:02:06.933388+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 34c778659d176315b7230932687c9d3347be78b7226334626fde03aa9c977dbc
Stored hash: ecf9123b865871698e8dae3ed886c53c12a2088bb6c12071f5a90b0436be6cc3
Recomputed: ecf9123b865871698e8dae3ed886c53c12a2088bb6c12071f5a90b0436be6cc3

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Hatta SC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0205,
  "explanation": "Home win: 66% against a market price of 68% (-2.0%).\nExpected goals Al Nasr 1.77 – 1.19 Hatta SC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±12.0%), so it carries 13% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHatta SC's defence (1.16× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nHatta SC's attack (0.90× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.0%).",
  "fixture": 1639009,
  "home": "Al Nasr",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:05:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 301,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6829,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-301-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.38",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6624,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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