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Entry #328: pick published

Hash verified

Carrarese v Modena: Home win 24% @ 4.33 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:02:06.116097+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: cbe1d90f350e0645c3b59534bde73629cbd4188c4d69cb52525a0d5574c089ce
Stored hash: 34c778659d176315b7230932687c9d3347be78b7226334626fde03aa9c977dbc
Recomputed: 34c778659d176315b7230932687c9d3347be78b7226334626fde03aa9c977dbc

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Modena",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.034,
  "explanation": "Home win: 24% against a market price of 21% (+3.4%).\nExpected goals Carrarese 1.32 – 1.30 Modena.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+33% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nModena's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nCarrarese's attack (0.93× the league rate) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nRest days (Carrarese 6, Modena 6) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1601555,
  "home": "Carrarese",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 136,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2084,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-136-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "4.33",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2424,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.4% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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