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Entry #327: pick published

Hash verified

Mlada Boleslav v Teplice: Home win 43% @ 2.10 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:02:04.603108+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: e5a46b1768e8a759fb0eb48663af5b8c73f67a2b610b88fc3f2dcc595d44b19f
Stored hash: cbe1d90f350e0645c3b59534bde73629cbd4188c4d69cb52525a0d5574c089ce
Recomputed: cbe1d90f350e0645c3b59534bde73629cbd4188c4d69cb52525a0d5574c089ce

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Teplice",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0194,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 45% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Mlada Boleslav 1.38 – 1.32 Teplice.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+17% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Mlada Boleslav 3, Teplice 6) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nMlada Boleslav's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTeplice's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).",
  "fixture": 1560044,
  "home": "Mlada Boleslav",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T13:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Czech Liga",
  "league_api_id": 345,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4466,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-345-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.10",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4272,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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