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Entry #387: pick published

Hash verified

Al-Sailiya v Qatar SC: Away win 52% @ 1.75 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:33.614103+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 777cd12ed1d34bfcd355855f23b3f5689d0b2b6ad648c461a59f8b22f63de6e1
Stored hash: 13e785dc37c5faece648e1dde82e48a2a38f510a5dcf6cfe98e936b9b852d0d8
Recomputed: 13e785dc37c5faece648e1dde82e48a2a38f510a5dcf6cfe98e936b9b852d0d8

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Qatar SC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0189,
  "explanation": "Away win: 52% against a market price of 53% (-1.9%).\nExpected goals Al-Sailiya 1.44 – 1.68 Qatar SC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±9.2%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAl-Sailiya's attack (0.84× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to away win.\nAl-Sailiya's defence (1.12× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nQatar SC's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.9%).",
  "fixture": 1597941,
  "home": "Al-Sailiya",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Stars League",
  "league_api_id": 305,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5346,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-305-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.75",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5157,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#386 #388

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