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Entry #388: pick published

Hash verified

Osters IF v Oddevold: Away win 41% @ 2.18 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:34.881393+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 13e785dc37c5faece648e1dde82e48a2a38f510a5dcf6cfe98e936b9b852d0d8
Stored hash: 07c5a6bca14af7fd2378fb4096c9de19cf8fe70c34286a6cec107491025cd12e
Recomputed: 07c5a6bca14af7fd2378fb4096c9de19cf8fe70c34286a6cec107491025cd12e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Oddevold",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0212,
  "explanation": "Away win: 41% against a market price of 43% (-2.1%).\nExpected goals Osters IF 1.32 – 1.21 Oddevold.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 33% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nOddevold's defence (0.93× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).",
  "fixture": 1497725,
  "home": "Osters IF",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Superettan",
  "league_api_id": 114,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4273,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-114-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.18",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4061,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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