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Entry #389: pick published

Hash verified

Shakhtar Donetsk v Kolos Kovalivka: Home win 74% @ 1.25 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:35.783391+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 07c5a6bca14af7fd2378fb4096c9de19cf8fe70c34286a6cec107491025cd12e
Stored hash: 753619949ca900da6997faab64b915288a87fe199cc6af1589147c29ab6af6c1
Recomputed: 753619949ca900da6997faab64b915288a87fe199cc6af1589147c29ab6af6c1

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Kolos Kovalivka",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0179,
  "explanation": "Home win: 74% against a market price of 76% (-1.8%).\nExpected goals Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 – 0.74 Kolos Kovalivka.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±11.3%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nShakhtar Donetsk's attack (1.78× the league rate) adds 2.6 pts to home win.\nShakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.68× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nKolos Kovalivka's defence (0.88× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+7% goals at home) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).",
  "fixture": 1565504,
  "home": "Shakhtar Donetsk",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 333,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7628,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-333-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.25",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7449,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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