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Entry #390: pick published

Hash verified

Vojvodina v Radnicki 1923: Home win 59% @ 1.59 (Avoid)

Written
2026-10-17T00:03:37.038666+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash
753619949ca900da6997faab64b915288a87fe199cc6af1589147c29ab6af6c1
Stored hash
005ad192894c92ef756ad66eaffd13c1bc40b297ce43f7f0135a8c7648a9bf9f
Recomputed
005ad192894c92ef756ad66eaffd13c1bc40b297ce43f7f0135a8c7648a9bf9f
Content, exactly as hashed
{
  "away": "Radnicki 1923",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0012,
  "explanation": "Home win: 59% against a market price of 59% (+0.1%).\nExpected goals Vojvodina 2.28 – 1.20 Radnicki 1923.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±9.0%), so it carries 16% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nVojvodina's attack (1.42× the league rate) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nVojvodina's defence (0.83× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nRadnicki 1923's defence (0.92× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1553890,
  "home": "Vojvodina",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 286,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5863,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-286-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.59",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5875,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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