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Entry #391: pick published

Hash verified

Paks v Gyori ETO FC: Away win 31% @ 3.23 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:37.945367+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 005ad192894c92ef756ad66eaffd13c1bc40b297ce43f7f0135a8c7648a9bf9f
Stored hash: 99089961dd80127e6f6b49a8dbb14039723fb9e2aa4193c1cbaae49987518bce
Recomputed: 99089961dd80127e6f6b49a8dbb14039723fb9e2aa4193c1cbaae49987518bce

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Gyori ETO FC",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.0351,
  "explanation": "Away win: 31% against a market price of 28% (+3.5%).\nExpected goals Paks 1.51 – 1.58 Gyori ETO FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nGyori ETO FC's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 1.9 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nGyori ETO FC's attack (1.11× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to away win.\nPaks's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1560259,
  "home": "Paks",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2773,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "3.23",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3125,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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