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Entry #392: pick published

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Gagra v Dinamo Batumi: Home win 22% @ 5.02 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:38.587349+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 99089961dd80127e6f6b49a8dbb14039723fb9e2aa4193c1cbaae49987518bce
Stored hash: bd0b7a848f843e5ca4291ca1e93af877caafe800564121562160e74a024ce95e
Recomputed: bd0b7a848f843e5ca4291ca1e93af877caafe800564121562160e74a024ce95e

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Dinamo Batumi",
  "bookmakers": 4,
  "edge": 0.0516,
  "explanation": "Home win: 22% against a market price of 17% (+5.2%).\nExpected goals Gagra 1.26 – 1.37 Dinamo Batumi.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 35% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+14% goals at home) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nGagra's attack (0.89× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nGagra's defence (1.05× the league rate against) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nDinamo Batumi's attack (1.04× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.2% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1509200,
  "home": "Gagra",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Erovnuli Liga",
  "league_api_id": 327,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1658,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-327-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "5.02",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2174,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 5.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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