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{
  "away": "Waldhof Mannheim",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0326,
  "explanation": "Away win: 44% against a market price of 47% (-3.3%).\nExpected goals Würzburger Kickers 1.48 – 1.34 Waldhof Mannheim.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 1.0 pts from away win.\nWürzburger Kickers's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.3%).",
  "fixture": 1584043,
  "home": "Würzburger Kickers",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.473,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.94",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4404,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}