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{
  "away": "Almere City FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0147,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 44% (-1.5%).\nExpected goals Emmen 1.78 – 1.82 Almere City FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nAlmere City FC's attack (1.16× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nAlmere City FC's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nEmmen's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.5%).",
  "fixture": 1551841,
  "home": "Emmen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eerste Divisie",
  "league_api_id": 89,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4357,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-89-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.16",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4211,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}