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{
  "away": "PSV Eindhoven",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0134,
  "explanation": "Away win: 75% against a market price of 76% (-1.3%).\nExpected goals ADO Den Haag 1.13 – 2.50 PSV Eindhoven.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 67% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 15% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nPSV Eindhoven's attack (1.86× the league rate) adds 3.9 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+19% goals at home) takes 0.6 pts from away win.\nADO Den Haag's defence (1.08× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nRest days (ADO Den Haag 6, PSV Eindhoven 4) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1552190,
  "home": "ADO Den Haag",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T14:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eredivisie",
  "league_api_id": 88,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7644,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-88-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.26",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.751,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}