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Entry #402: pick published

Hash verified

Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor: Home win 74% @ 1.29 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:55.103381+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c4d6d3b8ead7cefb847524f334bf48f92f9544aaadfdb1fd20d60e54e476ae35
Stored hash: 20decd7e67758d1ca5bd05172d9d885c5be21f0b599636e7212a21905be8b54a
Recomputed: 20decd7e67758d1ca5bd05172d9d885c5be21f0b599636e7212a21905be8b54a

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Alanyaspor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0092,
  "explanation": "Home win: 74% against a market price of 75% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Fenerbahçe 2.50 – 0.98 Alanyaspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 69% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFenerbahçe's attack (1.65× the league rate) adds 3.7 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Fenerbahçe 3, Alanyaspor 7) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nAlanyaspor's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Banker: 74% likely, uncertainty only ±1.3%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1584434,
  "home": "Fenerbahçe",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Süper Lig",
  "league_api_id": 203,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7453,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-203-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.29",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7361,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "74% likely, uncertainty only ±1.3%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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