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Entry #403: pick published

Hash verified

Racing Montevideo v Wanderers: Home win 46% @ 1.90 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:56.814487+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 20decd7e67758d1ca5bd05172d9d885c5be21f0b599636e7212a21905be8b54a
Stored hash: 07be85f1fe162cacfa284c72d6dd3940f3e7d53b2a273769d8af673a4da8fd89
Recomputed: 07be85f1fe162cacfa284c72d6dd3940f3e7d53b2a273769d8af673a4da8fd89

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Wanderers",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0274,
  "explanation": "Home win: 46% against a market price of 49% (-2.7%).\nExpected goals Racing Montevideo 1.24 – 0.98 Wanderers.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±5.6%), so it carries 44% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nRacing Montevideo's defence (0.90× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nRacing Montevideo's attack (0.96× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nWanderers's defence (1.02× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.7%).",
  "fixture": 1644700,
  "home": "Racing Montevideo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 268,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4898,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-268-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.90",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4624,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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