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{
  "away": "Fredrikstad",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0019,
  "explanation": "Home win: 76% against a market price of 76% (-0.2%).\nExpected goals Viking 2.60 – 0.80 Fredrikstad.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 75% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nViking's attack (1.52× the league rate) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nRest days (Viking 4, Fredrikstad 6) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nFredrikstad's defence (0.89× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Banker: 76% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1494787,
  "home": "Viking",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7625,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.26",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7605,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "76% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}