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Entry #405: pick published

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Sekhukhune United v Marumo Gallants: Home win 53% @ 1.75 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:00.188830+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 3965b8adc2842ad9c2a6306e025a44593c67ee720c3d2ddeb6f4ba0a94bb3bed
Stored hash: 4ce76b54f394020795c5ec3e27449855fc395b409c43cd86e5aa2bd2e67d4977
Recomputed: 4ce76b54f394020795c5ec3e27449855fc395b409c43cd86e5aa2bd2e67d4977

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Marumo Gallants",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0002,
  "explanation": "Home win: 53% against a market price of 53% (-0.0%).\nExpected goals Sekhukhune United 1.56 – 0.77 Marumo Gallants.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±10.4%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+22% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nMarumo Gallants's defence (1.17× the league rate against) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nMarumo Gallants's attack (0.80× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Sekhukhune United 14, Marumo Gallants 14) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1600357,
  "home": "Sekhukhune United",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier Soccer League",
  "league_api_id": 288,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.533,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-288-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.75",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5328,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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