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{
  "away": "Ironi Tiberias",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0332,
  "explanation": "Home win: 76% against a market price of 79% (-3.3%).\nExpected goals Hapoel Tel Aviv 1.85 – 1.04 Ironi Tiberias.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±8.7%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHapoel Tel Aviv's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nHapoel Tel Aviv's defence (0.80× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+9% goals at home) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nIroni Tiberias's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.3%).",
  "fixture": 1555523,
  "home": "Hapoel Tel Aviv",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligat Ha'al",
  "league_api_id": 383,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7933,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-383-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.20",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7601,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}