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{
  "away": "Al-Ettifaq",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0168,
  "explanation": "Home win: 50% against a market price of 52% (-1.7%).\nExpected goals NEOM 1.77 – 1.49 Al-Ettifaq.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±9.8%), so it carries 18% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+10% goals at home) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nNEOM's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nAl-Ettifaq's attack (1.07× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nAl-Ettifaq's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).",
  "fixture": 1603052,
  "home": "NEOM",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:40:00+00:00",
  "league": "Pro League",
  "league_api_id": 307,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5216,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-307-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.79",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5047,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}