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{
  "away": "FC Liefering",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0197,
  "explanation": "Home win: 66% against a market price of 68% (-2.0%).\nExpected goals FC BW Linz 2.11 – 1.20 FC Liefering.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 58% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+20% goals at home) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nFC BW Linz's defence (0.82× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nFC BW Linz's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nRest days (FC BW Linz 8, FC Liefering 7) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.0%).",
  "fixture": 1567927,
  "home": "FC BW Linz",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 219,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6781,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-219-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.40",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6585,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}