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{
  "away": "IFK Goteborg",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0113,
  "explanation": "Home win: 38% against a market price of 37% (+1.1%).\nExpected goals AIK Stockholm 1.49 – 1.34 IFK Goteborg.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 32% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nRest days (AIK Stockholm 7, IFK Goteborg 8) takes 2.0 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nAIK Stockholm's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.1%).",
  "fixture": 1494297,
  "home": "AIK Stockholm",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Allsvenskan",
  "league_api_id": 113,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3712,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-113-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.52",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3825,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}