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Entry #397: pick published

Hash verified

GKS Katowice v Pogon Szczecin: Home win 49% @ 1.96 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:44.996687+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 11d8acf703178e5dd2562bb72bc4c880863a8d08882f6e57b1fa3a3c2dd397a9
Stored hash: 20f5ba3c7fef1706566fb2647bb6bffd02b906d4ad40803fe9930812595c2328
Recomputed: 20f5ba3c7fef1706566fb2647bb6bffd02b906d4ad40803fe9930812595c2328

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Pogon Szczecin",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0068,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 48% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals GKS Katowice 1.88 – 1.28 Pogon Szczecin.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 50% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nGKS Katowice's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nRest days (GKS Katowice 5, Pogon Szczecin 6) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nPogon Szczecin's defence (0.93× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).",
  "fixture": 1553192,
  "home": "GKS Katowice",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ekstraklasa",
  "league_api_id": 106,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4806,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-106-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.96",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4874,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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