Check any pick we ever made

Every pick and slip is written into a hash chain the moment it is published. Change one old entry and every hash after it breaks, so nobody, including us, can quietly edit history.

Entry #396: pick published

Hash verified

Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain: Home win 18% @ 6.52 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:03:43.750265+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 9724377a6beac0115296f9a013926e65c277b6c8ddd34b64bc94481d3e79b468
Stored hash: 11d8acf703178e5dd2562bb72bc4c880863a8d08882f6e57b1fa3a3c2dd397a9
Recomputed: 11d8acf703178e5dd2562bb72bc4c880863a8d08882f6e57b1fa3a3c2dd397a9

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Paris Saint Germain",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.045,
  "explanation": "Home win: 18% against a market price of 14% (+4.5%).\nExpected goals Strasbourg 1.56 – 2.01 Paris Saint Germain.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 30% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nParis Saint Germain's attack (1.47× the league rate) takes 4.0 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nParis Saint Germain's defence (0.84× the league rate against) takes 2.0 pts from home win.\nStrasbourg's attack (1.18× the league rate) adds 1.8 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.5% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1552790,
  "home": "Strasbourg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T15:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 1",
  "league_api_id": 61,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1394,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-61-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "6.52",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.1843,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.5% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#395 #397

Latest entries

1262 in total