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Entry #407: pick published

Hash verified

Bologna v Inter: Away win 61% @ 1.58 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:04.080658+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 1cbc8d8978dc133047f9f707fe8111132c028b2d67a6d8676e8ac903f0c93ae4
Stored hash: 0a71a50878a1bc0dfacdb744df1275582598366cb85030f6721235f9ac7b7e13
Recomputed: 0a71a50878a1bc0dfacdb744df1275582598366cb85030f6721235f9ac7b7e13

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Inter",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0036,
  "explanation": "Away win: 61% against a market price of 61% (-0.4%).\nExpected goals Bologna 0.99 – 1.92 Inter.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 59% (uncertainty ±9.4%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nInter's attack (1.80× the league rate) adds 4.3 pts to away win.\nRest days (Bologna 6, Inter 4) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+12% goals at home) takes 0.5 pts from away win.\nInter's defence (0.90× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to away win.\nTagged Banker: 61% likely, uncertainty only ±1.8%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1550149,
  "home": "Bologna",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 135,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6144,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-135-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.58",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6108,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "61% likely, uncertainty only ±1.8%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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