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Entry #408: pick published

Hash verified

Bodrum FK v Bandırmaspor: Home win 37% @ 2.53 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:05.525479+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 0a71a50878a1bc0dfacdb744df1275582598366cb85030f6721235f9ac7b7e13
Stored hash: 874ca3e303606a1988b75f131750a07ac246956bb813c50b33aed35b84c8fff1
Recomputed: 874ca3e303606a1988b75f131750a07ac246956bb813c50b33aed35b84c8fff1

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Bandırmaspor",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0135,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 36% (+1.3%).\nExpected goals Bodrum FK 1.14 – 0.84 Bandırmaspor.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBandırmaspor's defence (0.71× the league rate against) takes 2.9 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nBodrum FK's defence (0.74× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nBodrum FK's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1585789,
  "home": "Bodrum FK",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "1. Lig",
  "league_api_id": 204,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3615,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-204-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.53",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3749,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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