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Entry #409: pick published

Hash verified

NK Osijek v HNK Gorica: Home win 54% @ 1.65 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:06.570485+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 874ca3e303606a1988b75f131750a07ac246956bb813c50b33aed35b84c8fff1
Stored hash: b386600cd7c37b2eed46a490e5859657051597742c8b0f34ab227cf5b733c556
Recomputed: b386600cd7c37b2eed46a490e5859657051597742c8b0f34ab227cf5b733c556

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "HNK Gorica",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0361,
  "explanation": "Home win: 54% against a market price of 57% (-3.6%).\nExpected goals NK Osijek 1.33 – 1.01 HNK Gorica.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nNK Osijek's attack (0.86× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from home win.\nHNK Gorica's attack (0.81× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.6%).",
  "fixture": 1548544,
  "home": "NK Osijek",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "HNL",
  "league_api_id": 210,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5716,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-210-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.65",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5356,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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