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Entry #410: pick published

Hash verified

Hapoel Haifa v Hapoel Ramat Gan: Home win 54% @ 1.70 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:07.600448+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b386600cd7c37b2eed46a490e5859657051597742c8b0f34ab227cf5b733c556
Stored hash: 4ef238e91aede404a650d34c178151a88b6822f4206e132e74bfa24ba66529be
Recomputed: 4ef238e91aede404a650d34c178151a88b6822f4206e132e74bfa24ba66529be

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Hapoel Ramat Gan",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0168,
  "explanation": "Home win: 54% against a market price of 55% (-1.7%).\nExpected goals Hapoel Haifa 1.43 – 1.12 Hapoel Ramat Gan.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±10.4%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHapoel Ramat Gan's attack (0.81× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nHapoel Haifa's attack (0.90× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+9% goals at home) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nHapoel Ramat Gan's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).",
  "fixture": 1555522,
  "home": "Hapoel Haifa",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligat Ha'al",
  "league_api_id": 383,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5526,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-383-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.70",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5358,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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