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Entry #411: pick published

Hash verified

Spartak Trnava v Slovan Bratislava: Away win 43% @ 2.08 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:09.110447+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 4ef238e91aede404a650d34c178151a88b6822f4206e132e74bfa24ba66529be
Stored hash: 97bf6d73648b449a05bcd58dfbe6f1e47d4360f8674d829af0d2db8c7af36ad1
Recomputed: 97bf6d73648b449a05bcd58dfbe6f1e47d4360f8674d829af0d2db8c7af36ad1

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Slovan Bratislava",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.018,
  "explanation": "Away win: 43% against a market price of 45% (-1.8%).\nExpected goals Spartak Trnava 1.65 – 1.59 Slovan Bratislava.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±9.3%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nSlovan Bratislava's attack (1.32× the league rate) adds 2.3 pts to away win.\nSpartak Trnava's attack (1.22× the league rate) takes 1.5 pts from away win.\nSpartak Trnava's defence (0.88× the league rate against) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nSlovan Bratislava's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).",
  "fixture": 1551579,
  "home": "Spartak Trnava",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 332,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4516,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-332-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.08",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4337,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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