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Entry #412: pick published

Hash verified

Bnei Sakhnin v Hapoel Petah Tikva: Away win 36% @ 2.62 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:10.338999+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 97bf6d73648b449a05bcd58dfbe6f1e47d4360f8674d829af0d2db8c7af36ad1
Stored hash: c6e103c6ffe1a5941413f3c4e02d3527f14ae8d954646c8f603a55860f63afc2
Recomputed: c6e103c6ffe1a5941413f3c4e02d3527f14ae8d954646c8f603a55860f63afc2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Hapoel Petah Tikva",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0093,
  "explanation": "Away win: 36% against a market price of 35% (+0.9%).\nExpected goals Bnei Sakhnin 0.95 – 1.16 Hapoel Petah Tikva.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 39% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBnei Sakhnin's attack (0.63× the league rate) adds 2.4 pts to away win.\nHapoel Petah Tikva's attack (0.86× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+9% goals at home) takes 0.4 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.9%).",
  "fixture": 1555527,
  "home": "Bnei Sakhnin",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligat Ha'al",
  "league_api_id": 383,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3502,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-383-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.62",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3595,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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