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Entry #419: pick published

Hash verified

Libertad v Guayaquil City FC: Home win 48% @ 1.89 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:23.338979+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ee69dad2b0051e0697df10020fc0053d5151ad5774e14d55db0147bb3024ec2c
Stored hash: 1be46bbb075ca46540c027d9274adef705853a6c5942b9498613196d723104e6
Recomputed: 1be46bbb075ca46540c027d9274adef705853a6c5942b9498613196d723104e6

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Guayaquil City FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0092,
  "explanation": "Home win: 48% against a market price of 49% (-0.9%).\nExpected goals Libertad 1.54 – 1.20 Guayaquil City FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±7.9%), so it carries 26% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+30% goals at home) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nLibertad's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRest days (Libertad 8, Guayaquil City FC 7) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.9%).",
  "fixture": 1639853,
  "home": "Libertad",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Pro",
  "league_api_id": 242,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4897,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-242-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.89",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4805,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.9%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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