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Entry #418: pick published

Hash verified

Lokomotiv v FC Krasnodar: Away win 46% @ 2.14 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:20.854530+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: bf5ece4aba7347ab37f4ab8049e91d5bb15c3e1a0fb027789d4fbbcbddd8b2c1
Stored hash: ee69dad2b0051e0697df10020fc0053d5151ad5774e14d55db0147bb3024ec2c
Recomputed: ee69dad2b0051e0697df10020fc0053d5151ad5774e14d55db0147bb3024ec2c

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC Krasnodar",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": 0.0048,
  "explanation": "Away win: 46% against a market price of 46% (+0.5%).\nExpected goals Lokomotiv 1.20 – 1.67 FC Krasnodar.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±9.3%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFC Krasnodar's attack (1.27× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nRest days (Lokomotiv 4, FC Krasnodar 4) adds 1.7 pts to away win.\nFC Krasnodar's defence (0.83× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+21% goals at home) takes 0.9 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.5%).",
  "fixture": 1561415,
  "home": "Lokomotiv",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4555,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.14",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4604,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.5%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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