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Entry #417: pick published

Hash verified

Sporting Gijon v Albacete: Home win 49% @ 1.94 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:19.439477+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 2aea9b362dff8d26242d77a38a512b769567d96dcf1b811b066656b1d541f4ca
Stored hash: bf5ece4aba7347ab37f4ab8049e91d5bb15c3e1a0fb027789d4fbbcbddd8b2c1
Recomputed: bf5ece4aba7347ab37f4ab8049e91d5bb15c3e1a0fb027789d4fbbcbddd8b2c1

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Albacete",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0011,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 49% (-0.1%).\nExpected goals Sporting Gijon 1.40 – 0.90 Albacete.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nAlbacete's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nAlbacete's attack (0.93× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.1%).",
  "fixture": 1569974,
  "home": "Sporting Gijon",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4907,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.94",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4896,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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