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Entry #416: pick published

Hash verified

Maccabi Petah Tikva v Maccabi Haifa: Away win 65% @ 1.41 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:17.223943+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 6f1c0e962d75917e95538487ae04b397322b462e985e90de2666edd3d9767b2f
Stored hash: 2aea9b362dff8d26242d77a38a512b769567d96dcf1b811b066656b1d541f4ca
Recomputed: 2aea9b362dff8d26242d77a38a512b769567d96dcf1b811b066656b1d541f4ca

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Maccabi Haifa",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0162,
  "explanation": "Away win: 65% against a market price of 67% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.45 – 2.13 Maccabi Haifa.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±11.6%), so it carries 12% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nMaccabi Haifa's attack (1.36× the league rate) adds 1.5 pts to away win.\nMaccabi Petah Tikva's defence (1.11× the league rate against) adds 0.6 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+9% goals at home) takes 0.3 pts from away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).",
  "fixture": 1555525,
  "home": "Maccabi Petah Tikva",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligat Ha'al",
  "league_api_id": 383,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6704,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-383-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "1.41",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6542,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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