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Entry #415: pick published

Hash verified

Washington Spirit W v NJ/NY Gotham FC W: Home win 37% @ 2.48 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:15.579528+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: bb9cd6df27afdec17291e2b34f8fdbf95f2fc2e6883c671122174eef5dcc8631
Stored hash: 6f1c0e962d75917e95538487ae04b397322b462e985e90de2666edd3d9767b2f
Recomputed: 6f1c0e962d75917e95538487ae04b397322b462e985e90de2666edd3d9767b2f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "NJ/NY Gotham FC W",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.013,
  "explanation": "Home win: 37% against a market price of 36% (+1.3%).\nExpected goals Washington Spirit W 1.18 – 1.06 NJ/NY Gotham FC W.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±7.6%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nNJ/NY Gotham FC W's defence (0.76× the league rate against) takes 3.1 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.5 pts to home win.\nWashington Spirit W's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+1.3%).",
  "fixture": 1508573,
  "home": "Washington Spirit W",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "NWSL Women",
  "league_api_id": 254,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3591,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-254-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.48",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.3721,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+1.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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