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Entry #414: pick published

Hash verified

Real Betis v Barcelona: Home win 18% @ 6.36 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:14.265734+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ccb5c21034f23a31cce0b87b7a6b143aae66437a7e2eca1d777f8ee00958b20c
Stored hash: bb9cd6df27afdec17291e2b34f8fdbf95f2fc2e6883c671122174eef5dcc8631
Recomputed: bb9cd6df27afdec17291e2b34f8fdbf95f2fc2e6883c671122174eef5dcc8631

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Barcelona",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0377,
  "explanation": "Home win: 18% against a market price of 14% (+3.8%).\nExpected goals Real Betis 1.50 – 2.13 Barcelona.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 27% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBarcelona's attack (1.99× the league rate) takes 6.7 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+35% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.\nReal Betis's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nBarcelona's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.8% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1570413,
  "home": "Real Betis",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "La Liga",
  "league_api_id": 140,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1423,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-140-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "6.36",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.18,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.8% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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