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Entry #421: pick published

Hash verified

Bayern München v RB Leipzig: Home win 77% @ 1.22 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:27.833563+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: c66c79e619592d9102a08b2a756e4d6cec29c4ddbcbab5e5e876836d2211a4b5
Stored hash: 030d2466282bb678752d76549f4695e70c22c5dace8c488c03701d98e44acd61
Recomputed: 030d2466282bb678752d76549f4695e70c22c5dace8c488c03701d98e44acd61

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "RB Leipzig",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0231,
  "explanation": "Home win: 77% against a market price of 80% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals Bayern München 2.84 – 1.29 RB Leipzig.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 69% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBayern München's attack (1.98× the league rate) adds 7.1 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nRB Leipzig's attack (1.22× the league rate) takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nBayern München's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).",
  "fixture": 1575185,
  "home": "Bayern München",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 78,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7959,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-78-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.22",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.7727,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

#420 #422

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