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Entry #422: pick published

Hash verified

Lusail City v Al Shamal: Away win 49% @ 1.83 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:28.874381+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 030d2466282bb678752d76549f4695e70c22c5dace8c488c03701d98e44acd61
Stored hash: 954bbbc145561a2e2ff8c22d017779c05be394099d2d930be0d5b4cb83702a26
Recomputed: 954bbbc145561a2e2ff8c22d017779c05be394099d2d930be0d5b4cb83702a26

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Al Shamal",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0174,
  "explanation": "Away win: 49% against a market price of 51% (-1.7%).\nExpected goals Lusail City 1.61 – 1.59 Al Shamal.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 38% (uncertainty ±10.9%), so it carries 14% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.7%).",
  "fixture": 1597943,
  "home": "Lusail City",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T16:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Stars League",
  "league_api_id": 305,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5086,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-305-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.83",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4912,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.7%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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