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Entry #424: pick published

Hash verified

Atlético Ottawa v Forge: Home win 25% @ 4.17 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:30.947822+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ac52aa13512db8750dc451efbf2626b1ca1f8beba8c4c9daf82e9dc06e23ebf0
Stored hash: 0967abe80d27b2bdc0dc9134dc77320ed898a3a49eb2242f4d003952718b8923
Recomputed: 0967abe80d27b2bdc0dc9134dc77320ed898a3a49eb2242f4d003952718b8923

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Forge",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.041,
  "explanation": "Home win: 25% against a market price of 21% (+4.1%).\nExpected goals Atlético Ottawa 1.19 – 1.21 Forge.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 35% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 31% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nForge's defence (0.67× the league rate against) takes 4.5 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+31% goals at home) adds 2.5 pts to home win.\nAtlético Ottawa's defence (0.90× the league rate against) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nForge's attack (1.04× the league rate) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 4.1% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1517368,
  "home": "Atlético Ottawa",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T17:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Canadian Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 479,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2072,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-479-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "4.17",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2482,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 4.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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