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Entry #426: pick published

Hash verified

Ujpest v Puskas Academy: Home win 42% @ 2.16 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:33.529438+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 7d7faf0fef18dc16eb27bcd37f39296993c63b8e3c980fef0c12b90a0b7ed927
Stored hash: 8d14fdbc7a40214d149a1ec93ba99b0bfd52c02e973fcf09de465a3143bf9efb
Recomputed: 8d14fdbc7a40214d149a1ec93ba99b0bfd52c02e973fcf09de465a3143bf9efb

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Puskas Academy",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0062,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 43% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Ujpest 1.58 – 1.46 Puskas Academy.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 40% (uncertainty ±8.1%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nPuskas Academy's defence (0.89× the league rate against) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nUjpest's defence (1.06× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nUjpest's attack (1.03× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).",
  "fixture": 1560260,
  "home": "Ujpest",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T17:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4258,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.16",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4196,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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