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Entry #434: pick published

Hash verified

Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli: Home win 44% @ 2.17 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:49.247654+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 906e5e38962eb51928ff8d4fb418bc5d284fe8bf5725fc52a2d94f27dcc39f6e
Stored hash: 022d559ef1ef5d12c4606702175630a08699e93b89c9b69aa7a24692362c2136
Recomputed: 022d559ef1ef5d12c4606702175630a08699e93b89c9b69aa7a24692362c2136

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "FC St. Pauli",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0058,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 43% (+0.6%).\nExpected goals Hannover 96 1.71 – 1.37 FC St. Pauli.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±8.2%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+24% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nHannover 96's defence (0.95× the league rate against) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.6%).",
  "fixture": 1576200,
  "home": "Hannover 96",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "2. Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 79,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4327,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-79-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "2.17",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4386,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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