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{
  "away": "Juventud Antoniana",
  "bookmakers": 4,
  "edge": 0.0004,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Huracan Las Heras 1.12 – 0.76 Juventud Antoniana.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±7.7%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+73% goals at home) adds 3.8 pts to home win.\nHuracan Las Heras's attack (0.92× the league rate) takes 0.7 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).",
  "fixture": 1641299,
  "home": "Huracan Las Heras",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Torneo Federal A",
  "league_api_id": 134,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4289,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-134-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "2.14",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.4293,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}