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{
  "away": "Charlotte",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": 0.037,
  "explanation": "Away win: 21% against a market price of 17% (+3.7%).\nExpected goals Philadelphia Union 1.86 – 1.30 Charlotte.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 27% (uncertainty ±4.6%), so it carries 40% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) takes 2.7 pts from away win.\nPhiladelphia Union's attack (1.13× the league rate) takes 1.4 pts from away win.\nPhiladelphia Union's defence (0.94× the league rate against) takes 0.7 pts from away win.\nCharlotte's defence (0.94× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.7% too long by the market.",
  "fixture": 1490541,
  "home": "Philadelphia Union",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Major League Soccer",
  "league_api_id": 253,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.1697,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-253-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "5.29",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.2068,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.7% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}