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{
  "away": "Corvinul Hunedoara",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0205,
  "explanation": "Home win: 60% against a market price of 62% (-2.1%).\nExpected goals Rapid 1.53 – 1.03 Corvinul Hunedoara.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 49% (uncertainty ±9.2%), so it carries 17% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+47% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (Rapid 5, Corvinul Hunedoara 8) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nRapid's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nRapid's defence (0.88× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.1%).",
  "fixture": 1565272,
  "home": "Rapid",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga I",
  "league_api_id": 283,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6169,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.53",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5963,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.1%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}