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Entry #438: pick published

Hash verified

AS Roma v Genoa: Home win 63% @ 1.55 (Banker)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:57.482566+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: ff3a1e408b5512cf1656aeb52bb2c8b083ecfb11b5df0d6fe299da7298d93b37
Stored hash: b4b299755dbfd22e1741ce3e57cb4cb7567e0613be1d9f93b620c3602fcc1c35
Recomputed: b4b299755dbfd22e1741ce3e57cb4cb7567e0613be1d9f93b620c3602fcc1c35

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Genoa",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0032,
  "explanation": "Home win: 63% against a market price of 63% (+0.3%).\nExpected goals AS Roma 1.75 – 0.65 Genoa.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 64% (uncertainty ±7.3%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nAS Roma's attack (1.32× the league rate) adds 2.8 pts to home win.\nAS Roma's defence (0.78× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+12% goals at home) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nRest days (AS Roma 3, Genoa 7) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.8%, market agrees.",
  "fixture": 1550148,
  "home": "AS Roma",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 135,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6256,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-135-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.55",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.6288,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "63% likely, uncertainty only ±1.8%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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