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Entry #439: pick published

Hash verified

Estac Troyes v Lens: Away win 51% @ 1.83 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-17T00:04:59.863630+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b4b299755dbfd22e1741ce3e57cb4cb7567e0613be1d9f93b620c3602fcc1c35
Stored hash: 996116ae584f10ca46c11947e3ed84ca943c36adfbd9fe73738b5b2c710de2fd
Recomputed: 996116ae584f10ca46c11947e3ed84ca943c36adfbd9fe73738b5b2c710de2fd

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Lens",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0159,
  "explanation": "Away win: 51% against a market price of 53% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals Estac Troyes 1.34 – 1.68 Lens.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±9.6%), so it carries 21% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nLens's attack (1.19× the league rate) adds 1.4 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) takes 1.3 pts from away win.\nEstac Troyes's attack (0.87× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to away win.\nEstac Troyes's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).",
  "fixture": 1552791,
  "home": "Estac Troyes",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-17T18:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Ligue 1",
  "league_api_id": 61,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5263,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-61-v2)",
  "odds_taken": "1.83",
  "prediction_version": 1,
  "probability": 0.5104,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick"
}

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